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Home >> Market >> News >> News Details

Commodity Futures - Pre-session commentary
09-Nov-2018     08:52

USDA Increases Global Coarse Cereal Supplies Forecast By 29.9 Million Tons For 2018/19

As per the latest release from United States Department of Agriculture (usda) , Global coarse grain production for 2018/19 is forecast 29.9 million tons higher to 1,373.3 million, with a greater corn production forecast for China accounting for a large portion of the increase. Aside from China, corn production is forecast higher for Ukraine, Argentina, Kenya, Moldova, and Russia. EU corn production is lowered, mostly reflecting reductions for Hungary, Poland, and Germany. Corn exports are raised for Ukraine, Argentina, and Moldova. Imports are raised for the EU, Vietnam, and Iran. Barley imports are raised for Saudi Arabia, with higher exports projected for Russia and Ukraine. Not including China, foreign corn ending stocks are higher than last month, mostly reflecting increases for Argentina, Iran, Paraguay, and Vietnam.

China's NBS does not publish estimates of corn stocks or consumption. USDA's estimates of corn stocks are based on official production estimates by NBS, trade data as reported by China Customs, and other related utilization data. For the time period encompassing the 2007/08 to 2017/18 marketing years, NBS increased corn total production by an unprecedented 266 million metric tons. USDA raises estimates of domestic disappearance, resulting in higher stock levels that sum to an additional 149 million tons of ending stocks for the 2018/19 marketing year. Changes to feed and residual disappearance attempt to account for, among other factors, the expected impact of the variation in soybean meal equivalent protein consumption, corn prices, availability of other energy substitutes, and residual statistical error. Importantly, USDA's estimates of China's coarse grain imports do not change with this revision, and thus still reflect the reality that coarse grain imports, in addition to other energy substitutes, surged during a time period when the country was accumulating large stocks of corn.

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