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Home >> Market >> News >> News Details

Commodity Futures - Pre-session commentary
10-Aug-2018     09:51

Energy Preview: US Dry Natural Gas Production To Set New Record In 2018

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in a latest update, estimated that US dry natural gas production was 81.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in July, up 0.4 Bcf/d from June. EIA forecasts dry natural gas production will average 81.1 Bcf/d in 2018, up by 7.5 Bcf/d from 2017 and establishing a new record high. EIA expects natural gas production will rise again in 2019 to 84.1 Bcf/d.

EIA forecasts that pipeline exports of natural gas, which averaged 6.7 Bcf/d in 2017, will average 7.0 Bcf/d in 2018 and 8.5 Bcf/d in 2019. Increasing natural gas production in the United States and the completion of new pipelines that carry U.S. natural gas to demand centers in Mexico contribute to the expected increase. In June, two new pipelines in Mexico were placed in service that will distribute natural gas from the United States to destinations in Mexico. In addition, EIA forecasts exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rise from 1.9 Bcf/d in 2017 to 3.0 Bcf/d in 2018 and to 5.1 Bcf/d in 2019. This growth contributes to U.S. net exports of natural gas averaging 2.0 Bcf/d in 2018 and 5.4 Bcf/d in 2019, compared with 0.3 Bcf/d in 2017.

EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $2.96/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2018 and $3.10/MMBtu in 2019. NYMEX futures and options contract values for November 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending August 2, 2018, suggest a range of $2.33/MMBtu to $3.48/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for November Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.

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